https://w3id.org/kpxl/ios/ds/np/RAY17SyyVHf_46mX79Tq3_mdXW0Eertz_-YmI1kkCfMNE/Head https://w3id.org/kpxl/ios/ds/np/RAY17SyyVHf_46mX79Tq3_mdXW0Eertz_-YmI1kkCfMNE http://www.nanopub.org/nschema#hasAssertion https://w3id.org/kpxl/ios/ds/np/RAY17SyyVHf_46mX79Tq3_mdXW0Eertz_-YmI1kkCfMNE/assertion https://w3id.org/kpxl/ios/ds/np/RAY17SyyVHf_46mX79Tq3_mdXW0Eertz_-YmI1kkCfMNE http://www.nanopub.org/nschema#hasProvenance https://w3id.org/kpxl/ios/ds/np/RAY17SyyVHf_46mX79Tq3_mdXW0Eertz_-YmI1kkCfMNE/provenance https://w3id.org/kpxl/ios/ds/np/RAY17SyyVHf_46mX79Tq3_mdXW0Eertz_-YmI1kkCfMNE http://www.nanopub.org/nschema#hasPublicationInfo https://w3id.org/kpxl/ios/ds/np/RAY17SyyVHf_46mX79Tq3_mdXW0Eertz_-YmI1kkCfMNE/pubinfo https://w3id.org/kpxl/ios/ds/np/RAY17SyyVHf_46mX79Tq3_mdXW0Eertz_-YmI1kkCfMNE http://www.w3.org/1999/02/22-rdf-syntax-ns#type http://www.nanopub.org/nschema#Nanopublication https://w3id.org/kpxl/ios/ds/np/RAY17SyyVHf_46mX79Tq3_mdXW0Eertz_-YmI1kkCfMNE/assertion http://id.crossref.org/issn/2451-8492 http://purl.org/dc/terms/title Data Science https://doi.org/10.3233/DS-170002 http://purl.org/dc/terms/abstract Research on international conflict has mostly focused on explaining events such as the onset or termination of wars, rather than on trying to predict them. Recently, however, forecasts of political phenomena have received growing attention. Predictions of violent events, in particular, have been increasingly accurate using various methods ranging from expert knowledge to quantitative methods and formal modeling. Yet, we know little about the limits of these approaches, even though information about these limits has critical implications for both future research and policy-making. In particular, are our predictive inaccuracies due to limitations of our models, data, or assumptions, in which case improvements should occur incrementally. Or are there aspects of conflicts that will always remain fundamentally unpredictable? After reviewing some of the current approaches to forecasting conflict, I suggest avenues of research that could disentangle the causes of our current predictive failures. https://doi.org/10.3233/DS-170002 http://purl.org/dc/terms/date 2017-10-17 https://doi.org/10.3233/DS-170002 http://purl.org/dc/terms/isPartOf http://id.crossref.org/issn/2451-8492 https://doi.org/10.3233/DS-170002 http://purl.org/dc/terms/title Conflict forecasting and its limits https://doi.org/10.3233/DS-170002 http://purl.org/ontology/bibo/issue 1-2 https://doi.org/10.3233/DS-170002 http://purl.org/ontology/bibo/volume 1 https://doi.org/10.3233/DS-170002 http://www.w3.org/1999/02/22-rdf-syntax-ns#type http://purl.org/spar/fabio/ResearchPaper https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8456-8124 http://schema.org/affiliation https://ror.org/02tyrky19 https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8456-8124 http://schema.org/email thomas.chadefaux@tcd.ie https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8456-8124 http://xmlns.com/foaf/0.1/name Thomas Chadefaux 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